India’s decision to freeze consular operations in Dhaka and Pakistan’s continued closure of its airspace to Indian carriers point to a shared reality: New Delhi’s immediate neighborhood is becoming more brittle, more politicized, and increasingly hostile to Indian interests. Together, these developments underline how security anxieties, political churn, and unresolved rivalries are converging to shrink India’s room for maneuver in South Asia.
Two Moves, One Strategic Signal
At first glance, India’s shutdown of its visa services in Bangladesh and Pakistan’s extension of its airspace ban appears unrelated—one diplomatic, the other logistical. Yet both stem from the same structural problem: deteriorating trust in India’s near abroad. Rising Islamist influence in Bangladesh after regime change and Pakistan’s long-standing use of geography as leverage against India have combined to create a dual squeeze on New Delhi’s regional posture.
Dhaka in Flux: Security Fears and Diplomatic Withdrawal
India’s closure of its Visa Application Centre in Dhaka on December 17, 2025, was officially attributed to escalating security threats and credible intelligence warnings about extremist targeting of Indian facilities. The move reflects growing unease in New Delhi following Bangladesh’s political upheaval after the August 2024 student-led uprising that forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina—India’s closest ally in Dhaka—out of power.
Under interim leader Muhammad Yunus, the Bangladeshi state has struggled to contain the re-emergence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, both historically associated with anti-India sentiment. As street rhetoric hardened and Islamist networks regained confidence, Indian missions became symbolic targets. By summoning Bangladesh’s High Commissioner and invoking obligations under the Vienna Convention, New Delhi signaled that host-nation assurances were no longer sufficient.
The practical fallout is substantial. Thousands of Bangladeshi citizens seeking Indian medical treatment, education, or employment are now stranded, deepening public resentment. Bilateral ties—already strained by unresolved issues such as the Teesta water-sharing agreement and Hasina’s political exile in India—face further erosion. Economically, Bangladesh can ill afford this rupture: exports to India have reportedly fallen sharply, even as Dhaka remains heavily dependent on Indian energy supplies.
Pakistan’s Airspace Ban: Strategic Geography as a Weapon
Simultaneously, Pakistan’s decision to extend its airspace ban on Indian airlines until January 24, 2026, continues a tactic first deployed after the 2019 Balakot strikes. Framed as a security precaution amid renewed Kashmir tensions, the ban disrupts hundreds of weekly flights, forcing Indian carriers to take longer routes that add significant time and fuel costs.
The economic damage is mounting. Airlines face millions of dollars in monthly losses, passengers absorb higher fares, and cargo schedules are delayed. More broadly, the move undercuts India’s rapidly expanding aviation sector and violates the spirit—if not the letter—of international aviation norms. Analysts view Islamabad’s posture less as risk management and more as retaliation, linked to India’s role in tightening financial scrutiny on Pakistan and constraining its military options.
Political and Strategic Implications
Taken together, these developments expose a troubling pattern. Instability in Bangladesh creates openings for Pakistan-linked militant groups, while Islamabad exploits every lever available to impose costs on India. New Delhi’s responses—tightening diplomatic security, diversifying air corridors, and leaning on multilateral groupings like Quad and BIMSTEC—reflect a shift from idealistic regionalism to hard-nosed risk management.
Domestically, the pressures test Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Neighbourhood First” doctrine, forcing a recalibration between engagement and deterrence. Internationally, India is likely to seek greater US and partner support on counterterrorism and regional stability, especially as Washington reassesses South Asia under a changing political climate.
A Narrowing Arc of Influence
India’s diplomatic pause in Dhaka and Pakistan’s sustained airspace denial are not isolated irritants; they are symptoms of a regional order in flux. Unless Bangladesh decisively reins in extremist forces and Pakistan abandons coercive signaling, New Delhi’s influence in its immediate periphery will continue to contract. The challenge ahead lies in restoring leverage without escalation—asserting interests firmly while preventing South Asia from sliding into a cycle of entrenched hostility.
(With agency inputs)
