A Soft Turn Toward Pakistan, A Hard Line Against India
US President Donald Trump, once openly critical of Pakistan, now appears to be reshaping Washington’s South Asia strategy—drawing Islamabad closer while pushing New Delhi away. In a stunning reversal from his 2018 rebuke calling Pakistan deceitful, Trump is now embracing a strategic partnership, marked most recently by an energy deal and a series of diplomatic signals. This shifting alignment comes at a time when India is grappling with new US tariffs and possible penalties tied to its defense ties with Russia.
A Major Energy Gamble: Trump and Pakistan’s Oil Deal
On July 30, Trump announced a significant new pact with Pakistan—an agreement to jointly explore and develop the country’s untapped oil reserves. Declaring it a “massive” energy partnership, Trump revealed that a US oil company would soon be selected to lead the initiative. While specific details remain under wraps, the symbolic impact of the announcement was clear: it came just hours after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports.
The message? A clear pivot in energy alliances, potentially positioning Pakistan as a more cooperative partner in the region. For a country with significant economic troubles, this deal represents both investment and validation on the global stage.
Diplomacy in High Gear: Trade Talks and Strategic Honors
The oil deal isn’t an isolated gesture. It coincides with intense trade negotiations between Washington and Islamabad. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently stated that both nations were “very close” to finalizing a broader trade agreement, following his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Meanwhile, the strengthening relationship is underscored by military and diplomatic overtures. Just days ago, Pakistan awarded the prestigious Nishan-e-Imtiaz (Military) to US CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla. The honor, conferred for promoting regional peace and bolstering defense ties, signals a deliberate deepening of military cooperation.
Kurilla’s own remarks praising Pakistan as a “phenomenal partner” in counter-terrorism only add weight to the growing alignment.
Unprecedented Access: Pakistan Army Chief Meets Trump
Perhaps the most telling sign of this new chapter came in June when Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, was hosted at a private luncheon by President Trump—an unusual gesture for a military leader not serving as head of state. According to White House spokesperson Anna Kelly, the luncheon followed Munir’s informal endorsement of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his alleged role in easing tensions between India and Pakistan.
While the meeting’s content remains undisclosed, its symbolism was unmistakable: Pakistan’s military, long central to its foreign policy, now appears to have a direct channel to the White House.
From Cold Shoulder to Warm Embrace: Trump’s About-Face
Trump’s warmer stance toward Pakistan marks a dramatic reversal from previous US administrations. While President Biden distanced himself from Islamabad—refusing to contact then-Prime Minister Imran Khan—Trump has taken a radically different approach since returning to office.
His March address to Congress even included a rare acknowledgment of Pakistan’s role in the arrest of a key terror suspect, praising the country’s cooperation. Analysts believe several factors influenced this turnaround: Pakistan’s willingness to embrace cryptocurrency and its business ties with World Liberty Financial, a firm linked to Trump’s circle, as well as the Nobel nomination effort by Pakistani officials.
India in the Crosshairs: Tariffs, Penalties, and Pressure
As Trump courts Islamabad, New Delhi finds itself on uncertain ground. On the same day the oil deal was unveiled, Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Indian goods, citing India’s “high tariffs” and “unfair” trade practices. In addition, he warned of an undefined “penalty” over India’s continued purchase of Russian oil and military equipment.
Despite calling India a “friend,” Trump’s statements on Truth Social underscored his frustration. “They’ve always bought the majority of their military equipment from Russia… at a time when everyone wants Russia to stop the killing in Ukraine,” he wrote. Although he hinted at ongoing negotiations with New Delhi, the threat of further penalties remains.
Geopolitical Repercussions: A New Balancing Act for India
For India, the emerging US-Pakistan dynamic raises serious strategic concerns. The potential for re-hyphenation—once again seeing India and Pakistan grouped together in American foreign policy—could undermine New Delhi’s efforts to be seen as a standalone global power.
Moreover, as Pakistan courts both Washington and Beijing, India risks being outflanked in a region where influence is increasingly being traded in diplomatic deals and energy investments. The convergence of economic leverage, military diplomacy, and strategic signaling between the US and Pakistan adds pressure on India to recalibrate its foreign policy posture.
A Way Forward: Strategic Patience and Diplomatic Assertiveness
Despite the shifting tides, experts caution that nothing is permanent in the Trump playbook. His transactional diplomacy often follows short-term goals, and relationships can swing quickly. As Raza Ahmad Rumi of CUNY observed, “Like past dalliances, this could fade once strategic goals are met or regimes change.”
For India, navigating this moment requires a dual approach:
· Re-engage on Trade: New Delhi must push harder for a bilateral trade deal that addresses US concerns without compromising key domestic interests, particularly in sectors like agriculture and MSMEs.
· Diversify Energy Sources: While maintaining ties with Russia, India can expand energy partnerships with the US and other global suppliers to reduce the perception of imbalance.
· Assert Strategic Autonomy: India should continue articulating its position on global issues, including the Ukraine war, with clarity and consistency, reinforcing its role as an independent global actor.
Temporary Realignment or Strategic Shift?
Trump’s growing closeness to Pakistan is a complex and evolving story—fueled by energy deals, diplomatic flattery, and mutual strategic needs. While India currently finds itself on the defensive, the fluid nature of US foreign policy under Trump suggests there’s still room to reset the balance.
What remains to be seen is whether New Delhi can respond with the right mix of diplomacy, trade recalibration, and global advocacy—before the gap grows too wide to bridge.
(With agency inputs)
