India’s Evolving Security Landscape in a Tense Neighbourhood
India’s geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly turbulent. Surrounded by nations with shifting allegiances and complex power equations, India faces a web of regional challenges. From rising Chinese influence to instability in South Asia, the threats are no longer limited to direct military engagement. In this volatile setting, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan has raised a stark warning—a possible convergence of interests between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh could spell a serious regional security threat. His remarks come at a time when India is recalibrating its strategic priorities amid a fluid global order.
A Regional Axis of Concern: China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh
Speaking at the launch of the Foreign Policy Survey 2024 hosted by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Gen Chauhan highlighted a potentially worrisome alignment between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. While each nation poses distinct strategic challenges, their possible convergence could create a hostile strategic triangle, heightening risks along India’s borders and maritime zones.
Bangladesh, though traditionally seen as a neutral neighbour, has grown economically closer to China through trade and infrastructure deals. Pakistan, meanwhile, remains a long-standing military and strategic partner of Beijing. Gen Chauhan suggested that this trio could form a new axis that, if strategically aligned, might destabilize the region and compromise India’s security posture.
US Role and the Global Flux
General Chauhan also drew attention to the United States’ evolving geopolitical position, which he argued adds a layer of complexity to the shifting world order. As nations navigate between an old and emerging global architecture, the choices made by major powers like the US, especially regarding the Indo-Pacific, could either reinforce regional balance or inflame existing tensions.
India, in this context, continues to champion its policy of “strategic autonomy”—an approach that prioritizes independent decision-making without being tied down by alliance commitments. Chauhan was quick to clarify that this is not to be mistaken for “strategic isolation.” India seeks partnerships but on its own terms.
Maritime Pressures and Debt Diplomacy
The Indian Ocean region, long a theatre of strategic contestation, is becoming increasingly crowded. Gen Chauhan noted the growing presence of foreign powers, largely due to economic vulnerabilities in nations like Sri Lanka and the Maldives, which have taken large loans from China. This so-called “debt diplomacy” allows external actors to gain leverage over small but strategically located nations.
India has responded by extending financial and humanitarian support—providing over $3 billion in aid to Sri Lanka in its 2022 debt crisis—demonstrating both its commitment to regional stability and its pushback against China’s influence.
Operation Sindoor: China’s Silent Presence in Conflict
The CDS also addressed Operation Sindoor, India’s swift military retaliation against Pakistan following the April Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians. As the conflict escalated, Gen Chauhan acknowledged Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese defence platforms, which necessitates the presence of Chinese equipment manufacturers in the country.
While he stopped short of confirming state-backed Chinese involvement, he noted that further scrutiny is needed to determine whether Beijing’s support in Pakistani military logistics crosses the line into active sponsorship.
Additional Flashpoints: Myanmar’s Ongoing Crisis
Adding to the regional unease is Myanmar’s prolonged civil conflict, where armed ethnic groups have seized control of territories. While not directly threatening India, the instability along the eastern frontier adds another layer of complexity to India’s security calculations, especially in the northeast.
Navigating a Region on Edge
General Chauhan’s remarks underscore a pivotal moment for Indian defence strategy. The convergence of interests between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, if it materializes, could significantly alter the security dynamics in South Asia. Combined with economic coercion in the Indian Ocean and volatility in neighbouring Myanmar, India must remain vigilant and adaptive.
At the heart of the CDS’s message is a call for clear-eyed engagement and strategic resilience—ensuring India remains proactive, not reactive, in a region where allegiances are shifting and threats are increasingly multi-dimensional.
(With agency inputs)
