A New Front in Sino-Indian Tensions
Water, once viewed as a shared natural resource, is rapidly becoming a strategic weapon. The announcement of China’s plan to build the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet has reignited concerns in India about a looming “water war.” For India, this is no minor issue—the Brahmaputra, as the river is called downstream, sustains millions of lives and livelihoods across the northeastern states before flowing into Bangladesh.
India fears that during the dry season, water flow could be reduced by as much as 85%, triggering a crisis for agriculture, industry, and drinking supplies. Beijing insists its projects are benign and focused solely on energy generation, but New Delhi views them through the lens of security, sovereignty, and survival.
The Scale of China’s Project
China revealed in December that it would build the world’s largest hydropower dam in Medog county, just before the Yarlung Zangbo enters Arunachal Pradesh. Officials in Beijing describe the project as a feat of engineering and clean energy generation, but to Indian strategists, it symbolizes control over the headwaters of one of South Asia’s most vital rivers.
China argues the dam will not divert water and has undergone “rigorous scientific research” to prevent downstream damage. Yet the location—an ecologically fragile, earthquake-prone region vulnerable to landslides and glacial lake bursts—has heightened anxiety. Experts warn that a deliberate or accidental release of water could devastate communities downstream.
India’s Countermeasure: The Upper Siang Dam
To offset the risks, India has fast-tracked plans for the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam in Arunachal Pradesh. If completed, it would be the largest dam ever built in India, with a storage capacity of 14 billion cubic metres (BCM). The design allows India to release water during lean months, reducing the projected loss in Guwahati’s supply from 25% to around 11%.
The dam could also serve as a buffer against Chinese “water surges.” By keeping part of the reservoir empty, engineers plan to absorb sudden releases, whether accidental or intentional. In theory, this would reduce India’s vulnerability to upstream decisions.
The urgency of the project is reflected in the involvement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office, which has held high-level meetings to push the proposal. Survey teams have already reached prospective sites under heavy security, underscoring the project’s strategic importance.
Local Resistance: Development vs. Displacement
While the Upper Siang project may appear essential from a strategic viewpoint, it faces fierce resistance in Arunachal Pradesh. The Adi community, dependent on paddy fields, orchards, and cardamom farms nourished by the Siang, fears devastation of their land and culture.
When survey teams arrived in May, locals destroyed machinery, blocked roads, and attacked police camps. At least 16 villages are expected to be submerged if the dam is built, displacing nearly 10,000 people directly and over 100,000 indirectly. For residents, the threat is not geopolitical but existential—the loss of ancestral homes, farms, and forests.
The state government, led by a chief minister from Modi’s party, has declared its support, calling the Chinese project an “existential threat.” Compensation discussions and development promises—including investments in schools and emergency infrastructure—are underway, but community leaders remain deeply sceptical.
Regional and International Implications
Water disputes are not confined to India and China. Pakistan has long accused India of weaponizing rivers under the Indus Water Treaty, and Delhi recently suspended its participation in the 1960 accord. Thus, India’s own actions complicate its moral authority to protest China’s dam-building spree.
International observers caution that large dams in the fragile Himalayas heighten risks for all countries downstream. Seismic activity, unpredictable weather, and glacial outbursts can turn these mega-projects into potential disasters. As one expert noted, “Dam safety in such zones is a legitimate concern, and India must push for meaningful engagement with Beijing.”
A High-Stakes Race Against Time
Even if India resolves local opposition, the Upper Siang dam would take a decade to complete—likely after China’s project becomes operational in the early 2030s. This time lag leaves India exposed to risks during construction, particularly if China were to release water surges during monsoon seasons.
The asymmetry is stark: China controls the source, builds faster, and has the resources to absorb geopolitical fallout. India, meanwhile, must balance national security with domestic opposition, while ensuring its downstream partner Bangladesh is not alienated.
Navigating a Watered-Down Conflict
China’s mega dam signals a new dimension in the Sino-Indian rivalry, one where water security becomes as critical as border patrols or military hardware. For India, the challenge is twofold: ensuring resilience against upstream manipulation while addressing the fears of its own citizens in Arunachal Pradesh.
To achieve this, India must adopt a multi-pronged approach:
· Accelerated but sensitive development: Push ahead with the Upper Siang project but pair it with fair compensation, cultural safeguards, and community-led rehabilitation.
· Diplomatic engagement: Persistently raise water concerns in bilateral dialogues, multilateral forums, and with downstream Bangladesh to create a united front.
· Diversified water security: Invest in smaller dams, irrigation efficiency, and climate-resilient agriculture to reduce overdependence on one mega project.
· Transparency and cooperation: Demand greater data sharing from China on river flows, dam safety, and glacial health to pre-empt crises.
In the end, India must walk a delicate path—asserting its rights, safeguarding its citizens, and avoiding an outright “water war.” While dams may symbolize power, it is dialogue, science, and trust-building that will determine whether the Brahmaputra becomes a river of cooperation or conflict.
(With agency inputs)
