A Major Energy Pact on the Horizon
Canada and India are on the verge of finalizing a major uranium export agreement valued at roughly US$2.8 billion, a deal likely to supply India’s expanding nuclear reactor fleet for the next decade. Saskatchewan-based mining giant Cameco Corp. is expected to serve as the principal supplier, positioning the agreement as a pivotal development in reviving bilateral cooperation in the nuclear and strategic energy sectors.
From Diplomatic Pause to Renewed Engagement
Relations between India and Canada have experienced a prolonged diplomatic pause, marked by political tensions, stalled trade negotiations, and reduced high-level exchanges. Despite historically strong people-to-people ties and shared democratic values, mistrust had seeped into the relationship, slowing progress across multiple domains—from security dialogue to economic cooperation.
The recent momentum toward a uranium deal signals a deliberate shift away from estrangement. It reflects both nations’ recognition that long-term strategic interests—particularly energy security for India and economic opportunity for Canada—are better served through constructive engagement rather than diplomatic stagnation.
Reviving Nuclear Collaboration: A Structural Reset
The potential agreement builds on a history of civil nuclear collaboration that regained traction after the 2010 Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, implemented in 2013. That landmark pact ended decades of export restrictions and enabled Cameco’s earlier five-year uranium supply arrangement to India from 2015 to 2020, valued at approximately $350 million.
Unlike the earlier arrangement, the proposed decade-long contract is not an extension but a significantly expanded standalone agreement that aligns with India’s growing nuclear energy infrastructure. With around 25 operational reactors and several more under construction—many leveraging the Canadian Candu design—India’s energy strategy increasingly depends on stable, long-term uranium supplies.
High-level engagements between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, including their most recent interaction at the G20 summit in Johannesburg, have been instrumental in accelerating negotiations. Both leaders emphasized strengthening civil nuclear cooperation and broadening energy ties as part of a holistic framework for bilateral revival.
Strategic and Economic Implications
The uranium deal is unfolding alongside renewed talks on the long-stalled Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), through which both nations aim to double bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030. The upcoming contract could serve as a cornerstone of this broader economic reset, anchoring strategic trust and demonstrating the tangible benefits of cooperation.
For India, the agreement bolsters energy security at a time of rising demand for reliable, low-carbon power sources. Nuclear energy remains central to its clean-energy commitments, and Canada’s expertise—particularly in small modular reactors—could further enhance India’s technological capabilities.
For Canada, the deal secures long-term market access for its uranium sector, strengthens its presence in the Indo-Pacific, and aligns with the trilateral Australia-Canada-India Technology and Innovation (ACITI) partnership aimed at promoting clean energy innovation and supply chain diversification.
A Transformative Deal with Long-Term Potential
The forthcoming US$2.8 billion uranium agreement represents more than a commercial transaction—it marks a potential turning point in India–Canada relations. By rebuilding trust through tangible cooperation, both nations stand to benefit strategically and economically. If finalized as expected, the pact could usher in a new era of partnership grounded in shared clean-energy goals, technological collaboration, and renewed diplomatic stability. Its success may ultimately define the next decade of bilateral engagement, offering a durable framework for deeper cooperation well into the future.
(With agency inputs)
