A Legacy of Oil, Arms, and Alliances
The U.S. and Gulf nations—particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—have long shared a pragmatic relationship anchored in energy security, arms sales, and regional stability. Since the mid-20th century, this alliance has seen the U.S. provide defense guarantees in exchange for oil cooperation and strategic leverage in the Middle East. Over the years, the relationship has expanded into massive investment deals and military-industrial ties, but also navigated complex geopolitics—ranging from Iran’s regional ambitions to the ever-volatile Israel-Palestine issue. Against this backdrop, U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing four-day tour of the Gulf is shaped less by diplomacy and more by a push for economic mega-deals.
A Trade-First Agenda: Economic Forums Over Geopolitics
Trump landed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday, marking the beginning of his second major foreign trip since reassuming the presidency. His entourage included a cadre of elite American business leaders, underscoring the primary goal of the visit: economic engagement over political entanglements. The trip also includes stops in Qatar and the UAE but notably excludes Israel—a decision stirring unease in Tel Aviv as questions mount about its current standing in U.S. foreign policy.
In Riyadh, the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum took center stage. The event, saturated with symbolism and optimism, began with a cinematic video montage of falcons and eagles—icons of both nations—underscoring a theme of renewal and ambition. Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih highlighted the evolution of the bilateral relationship beyond oil. “When Saudis and Americans join forces, very good things happen—often great things,” he declared.
Trillions on the Table: America’s Bid for Gulf Capital
Trump’s objective is clear: to secure massive capital commitments from Gulf monarchies. While Saudi Arabia has pledged $600 billion, Trump publicly stated his target is $1 trillion. These funds are expected to flow into U.S. infrastructure, tech, energy, and defense projects.
Key figures in attendance included Larry Fink (BlackRock), Stephen Schwarzman (Blackstone), and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—an ensemble that projected confidence to Gulf investors. Fink, a long-time observer of Saudi development, remarked that the kingdom is no longer just following global economic trends but is now actively shaping them. This shift aligns with Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s sweeping plan to diversify the Saudi economy through mega-projects like NEOM.
During a formal lunch, Trump and MbS were joined by U.S. tech titans such as Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, signaling potential collaboration in AI and innovation.
Security on the Sidelines: Arms Deals and Iran Loom Large
Though economic discussions dominate, defense still shadows the visit. Trump is reportedly preparing an arms package exceeding $100 billion for Saudi Arabia, including advanced systems aimed at countering Iranian influence and securing U.S. jobs back home.
The trip comes amid high geopolitical tensions. The war in Gaza drags into its 19th month, peace talks in Ukraine remain stalled, and Washington’s patience with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to end hostilities or consider a Palestinian state is visibly wearing thin. Trump’s choice to bypass Israel is widely seen as a diplomatic signal, even if Israeli officials outwardly downplay the snub.
Further complicating matters, U.S. and Iranian negotiators recently met in Oman to restart discussions over Tehran’s nuclear program. Trump has warned of military consequences if diplomacy collapses, while Iran’s military leadership has cautioned Gulf states to maintain neutrality or face consequences.
Abraham Accords Expansion in Limbo
While Trump has hinted at progress on expanding the Abraham Accords—a hallmark of his previous term that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states—momentum appears to have slowed. Netanyahu’s intransigence on Gaza and the Palestinian question has dimmed prospects for similar agreements with Riyadh, despite quiet interest in warming ties.
Gulf Dollars Over Diplomatic Drama
President Trump’s Gulf tour reflects a shift in American priorities—from deep diplomatic mediation to hard-nosed economic engagement. While defense and security remain integral, it’s clear that economic partnerships now define U.S. strategy in the region. The absence of Israel from Trump’s itinerary is not just symbolic; it’s a recalibration of how Washington engages the Middle East amid changing alliances and growing Gulf influence.
Whether the billions materialize and whether strategic stability follows remains to be seen. But what’s certain is that Trump’s message to the Gulf is unmistakable: America is open for business, and the Gulf capital is welcome—as long as it comes without political strings.
(With agency inputs)
